Gambling is our generation’s smoking

Gambling is our generation’s smoking. And for applied behavioral scientists who choose to work in the industry, “I didn’t know” isn’t going to be an excuse.

To understand the problem, you first have to understand the scope. Gambling is big business, bigger than most people think: ~$70b in revenue last year in the US. That’s roughly the same as cigarette revenue.

And that business is directly connected to repetitive behaviors: a quarter of adult Americans are daily gamblers. Compare that to only a tenth that smoke daily. And the discrepancy will only get bigger, as youth gambling grows and elderly smokers die.

Those base rates matter. It is relatively easier to get people to increase the frequency of a behavior than it is to get them to start; it is easier to get existing gamblers to place more bets than it is to recruit new smokers. Which means dollar-for-dollar, the gambling industry is much more interested in applied behavioral science.

The job ads tell the story. Gambling companies (and yes, prediction markets are gambling companies) are already largely numbers-driven and predisposed to value the kind of methodical approach that applied behavioral scientists bring. And so it is no surprise that even a cursory look at the careers page of companies like Draft Kings and PolyMarket have plenty of job descriptions with terms like experimentation.

Especially in a bad market, those jobs are tempting: well-paid, advertised as fun because “gambling is entertainment”, and full of like-minded people who tend to be evidence-driven. My favorite Shakespeare quote applies: “My poverty, but not my will, consents.”

But there can be no illusion about the harm. ~60% of gambling revenue comes from people who are doing it at dangerous levels, destroying not only their own economic life but wreaking havoc on those around them. Just like drug addiction, gambling addiction means collateral damage.

And most people are aware. When four out of five folks recognize gambling addiction to be just as serious as alcohol addiction (and one in three believe it is more serious), ignorance is going to be a very poor defense.

Especially when it bleeds over into geopolitics. Six accounts made around $1 million in profit by correctly betting that the US would strike Iran in the hours before it happened. The accounts were newly made and placed no other bets. Subsequently, the White House issued a memo to staffers warning them against such behavior.

At best, it is war profiteering. At worst, it is war creating.

So do your career a favor and just say no. To be explicit about inhibiting pressures: from now on, if you are choosing to work in this space, my door is closed to you. But if you want to get out or find other options, I have open office hours for a reason, I will do all I can to help, and I am calling on other folks to do the same. Let’s create a pathway to meaningful work that doesn’t mean destroying the world.